We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is 1. Independent events are those not affected by a previous event. The probability of two independent events both happening is 𝑃(A and B) = 𝑃(A) × 𝑃(B ...

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise ...